Blackstone has told investors in a $63 billion chip-financing deal that it expects Anthropic to receive a high speculative-grade credit rating after its IPO, according to Financial Times reporting summarized by TechCrunch on October 30, 2026. The expected double-B rating would put the Claude developer near the top of the “junk” category, below investment grade.
That would complicate the financing story around Anthropic’s planned public listing. An IPO can bring in equity capital without requiring scheduled repayments. A credit rating addresses a different question: how confidently lenders can expect to get their money back.
The most revealing detail is in the chip deal itself. Its senior debt benefits from Broadcom’s guarantee, while a junior portion relies on Anthropic’s lease payments and already carries speculative-grade ratings. That split helps explain how enormous financing packages can close even when lenders remain cautious about the AI company ultimately paying for the computing capacity.
What Blackstone’s Rating Forecast Actually Says
Blackstone previously expected Anthropic to receive an investment-grade rating before the end of 2026. It now expects a rating in the double-B range after the IPO, according to TechCrunch’s account of the FT report.
“High junk” means the stronger end of the speculative-grade category. It does not mean an especially severe junk rating. The important boundary is between investment-grade debt, generally regarded as carrying lower credit risk, and speculative-grade debt, where lenders demand more compensation for uncertainty.
This remains Blackstone’s reported expectation, based on private communications, not a finalized public rating from Moody’s, S&P or Fitch. Anthropic and Blackstone both declined to comment to TechCrunch, and the eventual ratings and financing terms could change.
The reversal is worth noting, but it should not be stretched into a claim that the entire market has turned against Anthropic. The evidence shows one major financing participant revising its expectation. It does not provide a market-wide reassessment or a published agency explanation.
My reading is that the investment-grade boundary matters more than the headline’s loaded word “junk.” Crossing that boundary can change which institutions are willing or permitted to lend, even when the borrower remains capable of raising substantial money.
Project North Star Separates Two Kinds of Credit Risk
The $63 billion arrangement, called Project North Star, finances Anthropic’s lease of computing capacity powered by Google chips. Blackstone is an anchor investor and is helping banks distribute the debt to other investors, according to Oninvest’s account of the FT reporting.
The reported structure divides the financing into layers with different protections:
| Debt layer | Reported amount | Main credit support | Reported rating information |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senior debt | More than $42 billion | Broadcom guarantee | Broadcom has a credit rating in the A range |
| Junior debt | $18 billion | Anthropic’s lease payments | BB+ with a positive outlook from KBRA; BB from Morningstar DBRS |
These figures describe the reported debt components, not a complete reconciliation of the $63 billion package.
Senior creditors stand ahead of junior creditors in repayment priority if a borrower defaults. Broadcom’s guarantee adds another source of support for the senior debt. The junior lenders are more exposed to the risk that Anthropic fails to make the lease payments underpinning their investment.
That distinction is the central financing lesson here: a successful chip-financing deal is not the same thing as an investment-grade judgment on Anthropic itself. Part of the package benefits from another company’s credit strength.
The junior-debt ratings are also separate from the forecast corporate rating. KBRA’s BB+ assessment applies to a particular financing instrument with its own contractual protections and repayment structure. It cannot simply be treated as Anthropic’s eventual company rating. A positive outlook indicates a possible direction of travel, not a promised upgrade.
Oninvest also reports that Blackstone funds invested $9 billion in the junior debt, seeking a yield above 10%. That is a reported investor return target, not evidence that all Anthropic-related borrowing carries that rate or that the target return will be realized.
I would read the structure as evidence that financing is available, but that its availability depends heavily on who guarantees repayment and which investors absorb losses first.
Why Speculative Grade Can Make Compute More Expensive
Credit ratings affect both the price of borrowing and the pool of potential lenders. Oninvest’s summary of the FT report notes that many pension funds and insurers face restrictions on investing heavily in speculative-grade debt. Missing investment grade can therefore exclude or limit buyers that might otherwise help finance Anthropic’s expansion.
The practical consequences would likely show up in several places:
- Higher financing costs. Lenders accepting greater credit risk generally seek higher returns.
- More selective demand. Some institutions may have limited capacity to buy speculative-grade debt, regardless of their enthusiasm for AI.
- More negotiated protections. Future deals could require guarantees, collateral or tighter contractual terms to attract investors.
- Greater reliance on structured financing. Splitting debt into differently protected layers can help reach investors with different risk appetites, but adds complexity.
The last two are potential responses, not disclosed requirements for Anthropic’s next deal. Project North Star illustrates the mechanism: a partner’s guarantee supports one layer while another layer takes more direct exposure to Anthropic’s payments.
A simple illustration shows why borrowing costs matter at this scale. An additional one percentage point of annual interest on $10 billion of debt equals $100 million a year, assuming the balance stays unchanged. That is arithmetic, not a forecast of Anthropic’s rates or costs. The available reporting does not establish a specific interest-rate penalty from the expected rating.
The effect on AI competition would be indirect but consequential. If financing gets more expensive, a company must cover that expense through some combination of operating cash flow, additional investment or changes to spending. Strong model demand can help, but lenders still need confidence that cash will arrive in time to meet contractual payments.
Frequently Asked Questions
3 questions
1Has Anthropic already received a junk rating?
The reported post-IPO company rating is a forecast attributed to Blackstone. Separately, Project North Star’s junior debt has received speculative-grade ratings, according to the reporting.
